Residential property prices are on a headline-grabbing tear as monthly growth rates hit a 21-year record on a national basis led by huge gains in Sydney and Melbourne markets which are rising at an annualised rate of 23 per cent.
The floodgates have started to open as cheap money has unleashed pent-up demand and spurred buyers to bid up prices.
But you won't see banks celebrating yet, nor are digital classified real estate groups such as Domain and REA. And it's still too early for real estate agents to break out the bubbly.
While properties open for inspection almost need traffic police to direct the crowds, it seems for the most part sellers are still fairly thin on the ground.
The buyers are firmly demonstrating the Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) syndrome but many sellers have been paralysed by Fear of Selling Early as they understandably anticipate the prices are going to keep running hard.
Some sellers are also nervous of transacting in a hot market where they will need to buy a replacement property.
Domain's chief executive Jason Pellegrino points out selling residential property is a frightening process that requires a general level of confidence in the economy.
Thus for the past six months the Australian residential property market has been largely unbalanced - there is a big increase in the number of buyers but it hasn't been matched with an increase in stocks of housing inventory.
And this explains why the properties that are going to market are being sold easily (hence the higher auction clearance rates) and why the prices are rapidly escalating.
Real estate agents and listings portals that had been desperately hoping spring would deliver a surge of new listings have been left disappointed.
Last month REA revealed a 9 per cent decline in revenue in its September quarter after national listings fell 15 per cent over the three months to September 30, with a 22 per cent drop in Sydney and a 21 per cent decline in Melbourne.
Domain Holdings had a similar experience in the four months until the end of October with new market listings down 14 per cent nationally and auction volumes down 10 per cent in Sydney and 18 per cent in Melbourne.
It is only in recent weeks that volumes have begun to pick up and it's more like a decent trickle than a flood.
A report from Capital Economics out on Monday suggests new listings have only just begun to recover.
Meanwhile, CoreLogic's Tim Lawless says the number of total listings in Sydney are still down 24 per cent from last year and new listings are flat, while in Melbourne total listings are 16 per cent lower than a year ago and new listings are off 3.8 per cent.
He agrees this is not the spring surge that the industry usually experiences. But he expects there could be a fresh hit from new listings in the first quarter of next year.
Lawless points out that the property market only turned five months ago and there is always a lag period before sellers get on board. He echoes Pellegrino's comments that selling a house is a big decision - one that takes time to make.
Also, it can take months to prepare a property for sale, find an agent and go through the marketing process.
Pellegrino is fairly optimistic about a rebound in listings in the new year.
"We are getting to a point where vendors are over the hump on confidence," he says, which he believes has been behind an improvement in listings at the end of October and in November and into December.
Chief economist at REA Nerida Conisbee says the reluctance of sellers to list property can also reflect the fact that many sellers need to buy a replacement property and there is not a lot of stock.
She says forecasting prices is far easier than forecasting listings and that strong growth in prices doesn't necessarily translate to an uplift in listings.
"I think the best market for listings is a stable market," Conisbee says.
An increase in new listings should provide more supply/demand balance to the sector and in theory tame the wild upward price movement.
But the Australian property market can be difficult to predict even without the distortions from changes in macro-prudential regulations and post-royal commission lending shock.
*** Source: Elizabeth Knight - Sydney Morning Herald